Phases of a Recession

My last post I wrote what I was discovering with my writings about a coming recession. Since then the markets have fallen and things look a bit ugly, but the Trump tariff war is getting the blame. More than likely the blame goes to the Fed for easy money policy and now seeing the reversal of it with liquidity tightening.

Wherever the blame, Raoul Pal does a marvelous job of explaining the 3 stages of a recession. We are presently in Stage 1 he says. But look at the data he provides leading up to his conclusions. Fits right in with my deflationary credit contraction narrative. Sooner or later, data matters.